TrendForce Announces 10 Tech Industry Trends for 2023 – Business Wire
Advanced Foundry Processes Reach Transistor Structure Transition Period, Mature Processes Focus on Diversified Specialized Development
Pure foundry processes transitioned from Planar Transistor in order to the FinFET generation starting from the 16nm node. After the development of the 7nm process and the introduction of EUV lithography technology, FinFET structure encountered physical limits at the 3nm node. Since then, the two leaders in advanced manufacturing processes have diverged. TSMC continues utilizing FinFET structure in mass-produced 3nm products inside 2H22, which will be officially released in 1H23, with the scale of mass production increasing quarter by quarter. In 2023, TSMC 3nm products will include PC CPU plus smartphone SoC. Samsung began introducing the GAAFET-based MBCFET architecture (Multi-Bridge Channel Field-Effect Transistor) at 3nm and this process will begin mass-production in 2022. Its first-generation product is a cryptocurrency mining chip. In 2023, Samsung will focus on second generation 3nm procedures, with the goal associated with mass-producing smartphone SoCs. Both companies remain focused on high-performance computing plus smart phone platforms within the initial stage of 3nm bulk production as these items have higher requirements with regard to improving performance, lowering power consumption, and reducing chip area.
For mature processes above 28nm, foundries are focused on diversifying development of special processes and have develop technologies platforms including HV (High Voltage), Analog, Mix-signal, eNVM, BCD, plus RF from logic processes. These are usually used to professionally produce peripheral ICs such as energy management ICs, driver ICs, microcontrollers (MCU), and RF (Radio Frequency) required in the fields associated with smart phones, consumer electronics, high-performance computing, automotive, and industrial processing. As 5G communication, top of the line computing, new energy vehicles, and automotive electronics usher in a trend of increased special semiconductor component consumption, it is imperative for these applications to rely on support from diverse specialized procedures to achieve the special purposes required in various fields.
Development Trends Focus on Automotive IC Design, Third Generation Semiconductors upon the Rise
The global automotive industry is trending towards C-A-S-E, driving strong demand for auto semiconductors. Auto semiconductors are essentially divided into two categories: IDM and Fabless. As traditional automotive nick suppliers, IDMs offer a fairly complete selection of numerous ECUs and also have gradually evolved from a traditional distributed architecture to Domain Control Unit (DCU) plus Zone Control Unit (ZCU) architectures. Fabless, on the other hand, continue to concentrate on the field of top-end computing regarding vehicles and develop in-vehicle telematics systems and SoCs for self-driving computing. Due to the particular complexity of automotive functions, the 32-Bit MCU type ECU has become the mainstream specification in the market. Inside 2023, its penetration rate will exceed 60% with a market value reaching US$7. 4 billion plus it will develop in the direction of processes below 28nm (inclusive). In addition , self-driving cars require high-performance computing AI SoCs and carry on to develop towards sophisticated processes beneath 5nm (inclusive) with processing power achieving 1, 000 TOPS and, along with MCUs, these products may accelerate the particular upgrade of the global automotive industry.
With the rapid rise of 800V automotive electric drive techniques, high-voltage DC charging piles, and high-efficiency green data centers, SiC and GaN power components have entered a stage of rapid development. TrendForce predicts that from 2022 to 2026, the compound annual growth rate associated with the SiC and GaN power device market can reach 35% and 61%, respectively. As demand intended for rapid charging and better dynamic overall performance in electric vehicles becomes more pressing, additional car companies are usually expected to introduce SiC technology into main inverters ahead of 2023, among which usually highly reliable, high efficiency, and low cost SiC MOSFET is a competitive focal point. GaN offers entered a red ocean market to get low-power consumer electronics applications plus Samsung launched its first 45W GaN fast charger in 2022, again boosting market enthusiasm. As technology and supply chains continue to mature and costs fall, GaN power components are expanding to medium and high-power energy storage, data centers, household micro-inverters, communication base stations, and automobiles. Against the backdrop from the EU’s draconian energy efficiency requirements plus China’s East-West data center plan, data center power supply and server manufacturers have clearly grasped the importance of GaN technology. GaN power parts are expected to be released on a large scale in 2023.
New DRAM Generation Takes Shape, Development of 200+ Layer NAND Flash Accelerates
In terms of DRAM, accompanying the pandemic-accelerated digital transformation of corporations, not only did machine shipments focus more on information centers, but also allowed new types of memory modules to coalesce, especially CXL specification based modules. As the number of RDIMM slots in a server system is limited, the use of CXL enables the entire device to avoid this limitation when performing high-speed computing while increasing the amount of MASS that can be used by the system. In 2023, not just will storage space CPUs such as Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa support CXL 1 . 0, yet DRAM segments will also employ DDR5. Furthermore, inside order to run AI and ML (Machine Learning) operations effectively, certain hardware GPUs will introduce a new generation of HBM3 specifications. Therefore , amid planning by memory manufacturers and numerous xPU providers, a new generation associated with memory has gradually organized and is expected to gain market share in 2023.
When it comes to NAND Flash, the particular number regarding stacked layers will accelerate in 2023 and four suppliers are expected to move towards two hundred plus layer technologies. Some manufacturers will even mass-produce PLC (Penta Level Cell), hoping for an opportunity to replace HDD applications on servers in the future as unit growth is further optimized. In terms of SSD transfer interfaces, with typically the mass production of Intel Sapphire Rapids and ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES Genoa found in 2023, enterprise SSDs will be further upgraded to support PCIe 5. 0 transfer, increasing move rate manifold to 32GT/s to be utilized for high-speed processing needs this kind of as AI/ML and furthermore contributing to this rapid increase in the average capacity involving enterprise SSDs.
Automotive MLCC Advancement Accelerating Due to Rising Assisted Driving Penetration Rate
At present, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are usually gradually becoming a standard feature on new cars. L1/L2 is the primary configuration level on the market at this stage, utilizing approximately 1, 800~2, 200 automotive MLCCs. As semiconductor IDM developed ADAS-specific MCUs, Sensor ICs, etc. become increasingly adult, L3-level ADAS systems will become a central upgrade sought by many luxury-manufacturers with regard to their high-end car models starting from 2023, leading MLCC consumption to jump to 3000~3500 units. Among MLCCs, often the 0402 size just meets the small space connected with a vehicle side monitoring module and has become your main application size specification.
The electric vehicle power core offers become one of the main research in addition to development priorities of various car producers in response to consumers’ demand regarding improved battery life, as well as to optimize charging and discharging efficiency and even power recovery systems. The inverter, electric battery management program, and DC power converter are three sub-system making up the soul of the exact vehicle, making use of approximately 2, 000~2, 500 high-capacity (above 10u) together with high-temperature (X7S/R) automotive MLCCs. Japanese manufacturer Murata officially mass-produced new high capacitance and high voltage 1206 size automotive products that can reach 22u 16V in early 2022. Companies including TDK, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung, and additionally Yageo are also actively rushing to market.
Carbon Neutrality Accelerates EV Transition, Battery Battle Rages as Reduced Subsidies Resurface Cost Issues
The cost of the variety with raw materials required for auto manufacturing have risen after the start for the Russian-Ukrainian war. In particular, battery-related material costs have increased dramatically and were quickly passed through to automobile list prices. Coupled with the two-year long shortage of automobile semiconductors, strengthening the toughness, elasticity, not to mention stability about the supply chain has become a top priority for car manufacturers. Automakers hope to shorten the battery pack supply chain to avoid source chain dissociations. Countries are actively promoting the localization of battery power supply chains due to political considerations. On the one hand, they propose preferential investment conditions and, at the same time, they likewise require localization of a proportion of vehicle components, as a form of carrot and stick in attracting battery plants to invest worldwide. As a number of countries begin in order to reduce or cancel vehicle purchase subsidies for electrical vehicles, the cost issue has resurfaced. As it is necessary to produce cost-competitive models while taking into account safety and performance, battery development is inevitable and will be likely to develop towards unity, diversification, and also integration. Unification of power supply assembly strengthens battery manufacturing management as well as improves commonality. Using different types in batteries according to automobile grades diversifies supply risk and reduces cost. Integrating designs through cell-to-pack (CTP), cell-to-chassis (CTC) and other highly consolidated methods improve the modularity of power and chassis.
On the particular other hand, driven simply by the global goal from net zero carbon emissions, demand intended for power batteries as typically the heart of electric vehicles has grown rapidly, inciting relevant companies to be able to accelerate capacity expansion. In 2023, worldwide power electric production capability will exceed the TWh (Terawatt-hour, 1 million megawatt-hours) threshold and output value will be close to US$120 billion. At present, the rapid expansion of the power solar battery industry chain is constrained by this expansion cycle of vanguard mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt, plus nickel, resulting in often the rising cost of power variety manufacturing in recent years. With its cost-effective advantage, the global market share held by li (symbol) iron phosphate batteries is usually expected for you to exceed that of ternary batteries in 2023.
Production Capacity and Technology Secured, Chinese Panel Makers Expand Influence in Small-size AMOLED Market
With the gradual expansion of China’s flexible AMOLED production ability, the development of your small-size mobile phone market provides gradually increased in influence. Korean panel manufacturers in addition to brands had been previously major leading companies in the exact flagship-oriented folding cell phone marketplace. However , as domestic Chinese mobile phone brands began to successively launch folding mobile phones, opportunities have appeared for foldable AMOLED panels produced by Chinese language panel companies. Adopting a new strategy associated with supply string localization, local Chinese cell phone brands are expected to gradually expand the usage of foldable AMOLED panels sourced from China panel factories. In order to reduce massive flexible AMOLED creation capacity, screen makers usually are aggressively optimizing costs. AMOLED driver IC are anticipated to become converted to some sort of RAM-less architecture to decrease costs. As flexible AMOLED panel structure is adjusted, the cost and even quotations regarding some versatile AMOLED panel products can be reduced to that will of standard Rigid AMOLED panels, along with an aim towards mid-range models which account to get a greater proportion from the marketplace.
Another mid-size market is definitely notebooks. AMOLED notebooks will be expected to help account pertaining to approximately one. 2% involving the overall notebook market in 2022 and approximately 1. 7% in 2023. The decisive key to accelerated medium sized market advancement in terms of AMOLED panels revolves around Apple’s future plans for iPad and Macbook series products, as Apple has begun to consider the use connected with AMOLED sections. Prevailing AMOLED panels remain limited by the particular size with production lines, currently still within the sixth-generation, which are not very economical in conditions of cutting efficiency. Additionally , the service life of notebook computers is longer than that of regular cell phones. Doubts regarding the lifespan of current AMOLED -panel structure led to the development of Tandem (two-stack light emitting layer) structures. Panel makers are anticipated to continue focusing on the introduction of mid-size notebook products with their existing generation capacity together with technology in the next 1-2 years, which may serve as a good basis meant for future larger generational potential development. At the same time, discussions and planning will be conducted related to 8. 5-generation RGB vapor deposition AMOLED development capacity and additionally technology.
Micro LED Diversifies in to More Applications, TV not to mention Automotive Displays Drive Mini LED Backlight Penetration
In 2022, total shipments of Mini LED backlight displays will come in at around 16. 8 million units, an boost of 74% YoY, for which TV applications will account designed for the greatest investment by brands. There are three main reason. First of all, Mini LED technology is the best solution just for improving LCD contrast. Secondly, because of partial OLED output capacity, more than 95% of flat-screen TVs are required to retain the use of FLAT SCREEN technology within 2023. Mini LED provides the best path for the purpose of LCD TVs to enhance specifications and also rejuvenate items. Finally, Oriental manufacturers happen to be actively investing in typically the upstream, midstream, and downstream of Small LED goods. Through your strategy about pricing by simply quantity, suppliers can use some higher cost-efficacy to speed up Mini DIRECTED backlighting penetration in this TV market place. Mini BROUGHT TV shipments are estimated to reach 4. 4 million units inside of 2023, an annual enhance of roughly 13%.
Vehicle displays really are another incubation hotbed with respect to Mini GUIDED backlight applications. Compared with consumer displays, vehicle displays possess higher requirements for brightness, contrast, as well as reliability. Tiny LED backlights’ relevant characteristics help improve driving safety. Stimulated by a dynamic pursuit of a lot more powerful display effects inside new energy vehicles (NEV) and a fabulous trend towards digital instrumentation, Mini LED backlights will certainly also become prioritized when it comes to expanded use in NEVs. In 2023, approximately 300, 000 Little LED car displays are usually estimated to be shipped, an annual increase of approximately 50%.
Smart watch wearables will end up being the next mass-produced application of Micro LIGHT EMITTING DIODE post-large displays in 2023 with high-priced fitness trackers as a starting point. In often the future, design will be centered on Micro LEDs combined with adaptable backplanes. With regards to applying microdisplays to transparent AR smart glasses, although very small sized (below 5um) Tiny LEDs must first overcome difficult challenges like full-color solutions and external quantum efficiency in red light chips, there is an opportunity to increase the development of Mini LED microdisplays through the solid technical foundation laid out by means of the BROUGHT ABOUT industry as a whole.
In conditions of motor vehicle displays, in order to allow drivers to immerse themselves in a highly intelligent cabin built for interaction with an important man-machine interface, the introduction of in-vehicle displays covers large-scale, curved, and clear displays, high dynamic contrast, or even a combination of even more sensing components to achieve intelligent functions. Micro LED is very suitable for software in a high-end vehicular environment. Within terms from heads-up display (HUD) programs, a HUD integrates plus projects dashboard and navigation system information onto the front windshield, reducing the chances of motorists looking down, for your purpose of driving security. Micro LEDs with active driving solutions can also be directly displayed upon the translucent glass backplane to accomplish a HUD function. 2023 is a key period with regards to relevant makers to begin product design in addition to verification, establishing a long-term development basis for Small LED motor smart cockpits and see-thorugh displays.
Looking Forward to 2023, Proportion associated with 5G Smartphones Expected to Increase to 60%
From the perspective of smartphone evolution, prior focus has been on improving hardware specifications. However, while innovation fell in recent years, mobile phone brands are more committed in order to software algorithms and the promotion of peripheral services such because partnerships together with optical giants Zeiss and even Leica throughout the field of video algorithms together with providing payment and movie streaming services. In addition to highlighting differences between brands, this strategy also represents a win-win in phrases of revenue by increasing peripheral services. Looking forward to 2023, the percentage of 5G smartphones can be expected to be able to officially top 50%. As display technological innovation advances, the exact penetration rate of OLED folding mobile phones is certainly estimated to achieve 1. 1% in 2022. With smart phone brands consecutively, sequentially launching brand new flagship flip-style devices and additionally driven by way of improved specs and a great deal more competitive pricing, penetration rate is predicted to reach 1. 8% in 2023. There is normally an opportunity to inject the breath regarding fresh air into a market where inflation has led to sluggish consumer sentiment and drive folding mobile phones into the mainstream.
AR/VR Products Become Cornerstone of Green Production, Accelerate Metaverse Popularization
The particular Metaverse can prompt branded manufacturers for you to accelerate investments in AR/VR product development not to mention bring additional products to help marker around 2023. In the same exact time, brands will in addition actively promote various Metaverse application solutions to drive demand in the AR/VR hardware industry through platform services and also then use the virtual interactive experience provided by hardware devices to enhance the benefits of Metaverse applications. Inside the customer market, providers will focus on application for example virtual communities, games, as well as live streaming of virtual characters (VTubers) while commercial distance conferencing and distance education can provide more diverse communication and interaction functionality with the Metaverse platform compared to 2D video clip. The need for visual and man-machine interaction might gradually raise after users try these interactive plus entertainment apps.
Consequently , the particular Metaverse are going to also push the adoption of fresh displays in addition to optical parts such as Very fine OLED, MiniLED, and Pancake lenses. Operation will also create from the original controller configurations towards image recognition or even wearable gadget applications, top to the installation of more picture sensing and even MEMS elements to attain a natural man-machine interface via the analysis of human body data. This effect has prompted numerous manufacturers to invest in the growth of engineering and patents related to operational style and evaluation algorithms. Throughout addition, AR/VR applications will even play an important role on smart manufacturing, smart transportation, and wise cities, especially considering green industry trends such since energy conservation and carbon reduction. Typically the Metaverse platform’s virtual simulation functionality may reduce waste generated at real-world testing and usage including during product design and style and inspection, production line management together with trial operation, traffic ruse and preparing, and digital tour involving urban facilities. Assisted by just AI software and computing performance, online simulations may reduce typically the costs connected with running companies and governments, and will also increase the willingness to adopt and increase the speed of the popularity with the Metaverse.
Large-scale Commercial Use of 5G FWA Adopted Globally in 2023, Accelerates Popularization of Home Broadband
Since 5G FWA can support home and additionally business purposes and offers larger bandwidth and lower latency connections, it has turn out to be an alternative in order to fixed broadband connections. From present, 83 operators in more than 45 countries not to mention regions globally have launched 3GPP-compliant 5G FWA solutions. FWA operators need to be able to provide info in the lowest possible total price of ownership (TCO), whilst ensuring network connectivity and also the future development for the entire broad ecosystem. In 2023, providers around the world have got invested in this development about broadband construction. In addition , regulators see wireless as an alternative to wired connections. Operators are also considering expanding often the deployment in FWA services, accelerating your provision from broadband Internet providers, and enhancing transmission rates through wifi communication technology. Deploying 5G FWA companies involves shorter time-to-market as well as lower cost. Therefore, service providers can furnish high-speed, low-latency high speed services present in a shorter timeframe through integrating 5G technology. Additionally , the provision of brand-new spectrum here in multiple frequency bands and services that are getting gradually more affordable to families will come to be a driving factor to find the development of 5G FWA in 2023.
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TrendForce is a new global provider of the latest development, insight, and research from the technologies industry. Having served businesses for over some sort of decade, the company has built up a good strong membership base of 500, 000 subscribers. TrendForce has established a reputation as an organization that offers insightful and accurate analysis associated with the technological innovation industry by means of five main research departments: Semiconductor Research, Display Research, Optoelectronics Research, Green Energy Research, in addition to ICT Programs Research. Founded in Taipei, Taiwan for 2000, TrendForce has extended its presence in China since 2004 with offices in Shenzhen and Beijing.